Christiansen, an analyst at Danske Bank: The restrictive hawkish tendency in ECB policy has been eliminated. However, there is no indication that the bank may cut interest rates sharply, and there is no indication that the terminal interest rate will fall. Carsten Brzeski, head of international macro business in the Netherlands: The European Central Bank decided to act safely today and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. No more mention of "restrictive" monetary policy, which means there will be more interest rate cuts in the future.German Finance Minister: We need to work together on initiatives to strengthen the European economy.After the US initial jobless claims and PPI data were released, the decline in US Treasury bonds narrowed.
Xue Hongyan, Vice President of Xingtu Financial Research Institute: Stabilizing the stock market means stabilizing expectations and confidence. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Why is the central government proposing to "stabilize the stock market" at this time node? What are the considerations behind it? Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Finance Research Institute, pointed out that the stock market is a barometer of the economy, and its ups and downs reflect the social expectation of the economic development prospects. In this sense, stabilizing the stock market will help to better form a positive and optimistic situation for development. Since the "924" policy shift, the A-share market has ushered in a round of surge, and the bull market has been widely discussed at the social level, which has effectively boosted market confidence. Therefore, in a sense, stabilizing the stock market means stabilizing expectations and confidence. The meeting proposed to deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market. What is the internal relationship between this and "stabilizing the stock market", and how should the next step of "deepening the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market" be exerted? Xue Hongyan said that the value of the capital market is mainly reflected in two aspects: one is to serve the high-quality development of the real economy with financing function, and the other is to let investors share more fruits of economic development with investment function, which are mutually causal and indispensable. Xue Hongyan believes that this round of capital market reform, emphasizing on vigorously guiding medium and long-term funds to enter the market, opening up the blocking points of social security, insurance, wealth management and other funds to enter the market, and emphasizing the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors, will help fundamentally improve the capital supply and demand structure and micro-ecology, and lay a solid foundation for the long-term cattle market. (The country is a through train)The forecast of the European Central Bank assumes that the oil price will be $81.8 per barrel in 2024, $71.8 per barrel in 2025, $70.1 per barrel in 2026 and $69.2 per barrel in 2027.Analysts commented on the ECB's interest rate cut, and Christiansen, an analyst at Danske Bank, said that the restrictive hawkish tendency in the ECB's policy has been eliminated. However, there is no indication that the bank may cut interest rates sharply, and there is no indication that the terminal interest rate will fall. Carsten Brzeski, head of international macro business in the Netherlands, said that the European Central Bank decided to play it safe today and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. No more mention of "restrictive" monetary policy, which means there will be more interest rate cuts in the future. Analyst Randow said that the change in the wording of the European Central Bank indicates that the ECB Committee has discussed the neutral interest rate. Otherwise, how can they decide what is restrictive and what is lenient? I am curious about what Lagarde will say next. Vassilis, a foreign exchange strategist, said that the euro fell to a new low because the European Central Bank gave up the "restrictive policy" part of the statement, but this does not mean that the policy language is completely dovish. Bonds in the euro zone are in a moderate trend.
European Central Bank President Lagarde: Enterprises are curbing investment, exports are weak, and labor demand continues to weaken. The employment opportunities created are decreasing, so economic development should be strengthened, and the economic rebound is slower than expected.Trump reiterates tax cuts.The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the week of December 7 in the United States was 242,000, with an expected number of 220,000 and a previous value of 224,000. In the United States, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week ending November 30 was 1.886 million, with an expected 1.875 million and a previous value of 1.871 million.
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-13